By John Swarr | December 21, 2017
Before bitcoin grabbed all of the headlines this November, a widely talked about trade in 2017 had been the short-volatility trade. One popular trade investors have used to monetize the low volatility environment, XIV, has gained almost 200% this year. Although these returns don’t stack up with bitcoin’s run in 2017, the fundamentals driving short-volatility strategies are much clearer. But before discussing why the past year has been supportive of short-volatility strategies, I want to discuss two types of strategies first.
By David O'Malley | November 13, 2017
Tuesday’s release of the Producers Price Index (PPI) and Wednesday’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be the economic data highlights this week. With inflation remaining stubbornly low despite strong employment conditions and the odds of a December interest rate increase running around 80%, the importance of the pace of inflation data takes on greater significance.
By Zhiwei Ren | August 10, 2017
Low volatility has been the hallmark for this year’s market. We have seen the lowest level on record for the volatility index (VIX) and the lowest realized volatility in the S&P 500 Index. The reason we have such low volatility in the market is clear: The macro environment is very benign and investors know it.
By Mark Heppenstall | May 18, 2017
The Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank of St. Louis provides investors a weekly gauge of financial stress in the markets with its publication of the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index. The Index is constructed using 18 different financial market indicators: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five others indicators, including equity and fixed income market volatility. Readings above zero indicate above-average financial stress while values below zero suggest below-average financial stress.
By Zhiwei Ren | April 20, 2017
The equity market has been very quiet so far in 2017. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 has posted a daily decline greater than 1% only once (on March 21), and the realized volatility for S&P 500 has reached the lowest point in the last 50 years.
The backdrop for the low volatility is widely recognized: the U.S. economy is growing a little above trend, a new pro-growth president was elected, inflation is rising but still remains low, the risk for a hard landing in China is lower, Europe and Japan are growing at the fastest pace post-crisis, and most importantly, low inflation allows the Federal Reserve (Fed) to intervene whenever we have some volatility in the market.
By David O'Malley | March 27, 2017
Last week was highlighted by the Republicans’ failure to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The policy setback was not well received by stocks, as the U.S. markets suffered both its worst day and week in 2017.
By David O'Malley | February 21, 2017
In this short trading week, I will be watching to see if we get any more information on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current thinking when they release the January meeting minutes this Wednesday. If U.S. economic data remains strong, I expect the Fed to increase interest rates by 25 basis points at the March meeting. Also of interest this week is the expected release of Berkshire Hathaway’s earnings and Warren Buffett’s annual letter on Saturday, which to me is a must read.
By Trevor M. Williams | January 5, 2017
Like most products and services, the price of oil is a function of supply and demand. During periods of extended oversupply, the price of oil tends to fall.
This material is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.
Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ significantly. Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.
High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.
All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. This material may not be reproduced in whole or in part in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.
Copyright © 2014 Penn Mutual. All Rights Reserved. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.Read Less...