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Unexpectedly Weak Employment Report

By David O'Malley | September 5, 2017

The nuclear test by North Korea has brought geopolitical uncertainty to a new level. As I have previously written, it is very hard to trade geopolitical risk so I prefer to stay focused on fundamentals.

Last week’s August employment report was weaker than expectations on almost all aspects. The report comes after stronger employment data earlier in the week. The ramifications of the weaker report bring the odds of a December interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to less than 50/50. The weaker average hourly earnings and sluggish inflation data may keep the Fed on hold until after the holiday spending season.

Uneventful Jackson Hole Meeting Leaves Markets Waiting on Economic Data

By David O'Malley | August 28, 2017

I first want to send my thoughts and well wishes to everyone enduring the impact of Hurricane Harvey in Texas.

Last week’s Jackson Hole Meeting was very uneventful from a market perspective as central banks kept their remarks very much in line with recent commentary. Janet Yellen’s speech felt more like a farewell address than laying out future Federal Reserve (Fed) policy.

Will Falling Unemployment Finally Lead to a Pickup in Wages?

By David O'Malley | July 31, 2017

Last week saw strong corporate earnings and continued growth in the U.S. economy. U.S. GDP for the second quarter was 2.6% according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advanced estimate. The strength in the economy was driven by robust business investments for the quarter. Further, the failure of the Republican plan to repeal and/or replace the Affordable Care Act drove headlines last week.

Disappointing Employment Report Clouds Economic Picture

By David O'Malley | April 10, 2017

Last week’s March employment data release disappointed market expectations as the economy added 98,000 jobs–about 100,000 less than estimates and the average gains experienced over the last six months. Average hourly earnings remained stable at a 2.7% year-over-year gain. On the positive side, the unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to 4.5% in March, which is the lowest rate since 2007.

Stocks Rally on Fed and Economy

By David O'Malley | November 23, 2015

The economic data for the week continued to be solid as unemployment claims fell to 271,000. This data reinforced the market’s view that the U.S. employment conditions continue to improve.

Expect More Market Volatility Ahead

By David O'Malley | September 7, 2015

Now that summer is over, we enter the historically volatile period of September and October. This year is unique.

U.S. Economic Data Still Mixed; Rate Increase Expected in September

By David O'Malley | May 18, 2015

Last week’s lackluster retail sales report and falling import prices have kept uncertainty regarding the strength of the expected recovery in the second quarter.

The Fed, the Phillips Curve, and Inflation

By David O'Malley | February 2, 2015

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) gave us our first glimpse at its thinking since the beginning of the year. The Fed kept its pledge that it could be patient in raising interest rates and stated that the economy and employment continue to improve.

Expect a Strong Economy and Low Inflation. Rates Move Higher, but Stocks Await Earnings

By David O'Malley | January 12, 2015

Last week, the markets experienced significant volatility. Friday’s solid employment number makes 2014 the best year for employment gains since 1999.

A New Year, with $50 Oil and a Strong Q1 for the U.S. Economy?

By David O'Malley | January 5, 2015

I am very excited about 2015 for many reasons, but one of my top professional reasons is for what could become of Penn Mutual Asset Management in the years ahead.



Disclosure Statement

This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Dave O’Malley, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client.  Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.

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Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice.  The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete.  Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements.  Actual results may differ significantly.  Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.

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