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Geopolitical Risks Upset Markets

By David O'Malley | April 17, 2017

Geopolitical issues took center stage last week as stocks fell again and Treasury bond yields dropped to their lowest level in 2017, as tensions surrounding North Korea and with Russia over the U.S. attack in Syria had market participants worried about the impact of the Trump administration’s domestic agenda.

Stocks Pull Back on Trump Administration Policy Concerns

By David O'Malley | March 27, 2017

Last week was highlighted by the Republicans’ failure to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act (ACA). The policy setback was not well received by stocks, as the U.S. markets suffered both its worst day and week in 2017.

Yellen and Inflation Highlight the Week Ahead

By David O'Malley | February 13, 2017

U.S. stocks reached new highs last week amid the continued slow process of cabinet appointments in Washington and the heightened noise associated with the new administration. Business optimism was fueled by the announcement that the administration’s tax plan will be released in the next few weeks, most likely at the state of the union address on February 28.

Capital Market Outlook for 2017

By Mark Heppenstall | January 20, 2017

Nearly eight years into one of the most unloved bull markets ever for U.S. equities and credit, the rally now appears ready for “extra innings.” Despite increasingly full valuations and an earnings recession for U.S. companies during a recent five-quarter stretch, proposed economic policies under the Trump administration will be supportive of domestic economic growth and corporate profits.

2017: A Year of Market and Economic Uncertainty

By David O'Malley | January 9, 2017

2017 began with significant uncertainty surrounding the implications of the major geopolitical changes that happened during 2016. In the next few weeks, we will learn more from the British Prime Minister on the process to withdraw from the European Union. On January 20th, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the next President of the United States. The impact of these two changes in the global environment will most likely drive the course of markets during the year ahead.

Uncertainty for Stocks

By David O'Malley | November 28, 2016

Over the past few months, I have had a strong conviction that bond yields in the U.S. were going to rise due to both fundamental and technical factors. Rates have risen even faster than I would have expected given the market reaction to the U.S. Presidential election. The increase in yields has wiped out more than $1 trillion from the value of bonds globally since this summer.

President-Elect Trump and the Markets

By David O'Malley | November 9, 2016

The election results are in with Republicans controlling both houses (with slimmer majorities) of Congress and the Presidency. As I watched it all unfold into the early morning hours, it became clear the historic and unexpected election results caught pundits and the markets off guard.

Mark Heppenstall Returning to CNBC Power Lunch on Monday

By Penn Mutual Asset Management | October 21, 2016

Chief Investment Officer Mark Heppenstall will join CNBC Power Lunch on Monday, Oct. 24th between 1 and 3 p.m. ET to discuss why U.S. stocks and bonds are struggling and the global conditions contributing to market uncertainty.

Market Breadth Deteriorating, Inflation Pressure Building

By Zhiwei Ren | October 20, 2016

A New York Times article about how Walmart is getting better results by paying employees more recently caught my attention. Walmart has 1.4 million employees in U.S., and this strategy change will have ripple effects on labor market. In the past few months, we have seen several signs that some long-term trends are changing

August Employment Report was Inconclusive

By David O'Malley | September 6, 2016

The employment report last week was mediocre, which makes my predictions for September less certain. During August the economy created 151,000 new jobs, below the last two months but not low enough to create concerns.

Disclosure Statement

This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Dave O’Malley, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client.  Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.


Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice.  The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete.  Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements.  Actual results may differ significantly.  Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.

High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.

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