By Mark Heppenstall | November 9, 2017
After five years of disappointing returns, this year’s double-digit gains in gold prices have surprised many investors, especially in light of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) continued monetary policy tightening. Conventional wisdom held that as the Fed hiked short-term interest rates, the higher opportunity cost to own gold would put additional downward pressure on prices.
By John Swarr | October 26, 2017
This week’s Monday Morning O’Malley highlighted the upcoming selection of the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. The top candidates for the nomination include Jerome Powell, John Taylor, Janet Yellen, Kevin Warsh, and Gary Cohn. The Chart of the Week shows recent betting odds on who will receive the nomination. While the odds are fun to talk about, this week’s write-up covers the candidates’ viewpoints and policy stances so the risks behind the candidates can be anticipated. Investors should be prepared for any outcome by understanding how each candidate would lead the Fed on key issues including monetary policy, the balance sheet, transparency, and regulation.
By Mark Heppenstall | August 30, 2017
While trading slowed during the summer months, as it historically does, the headlines did not! From squashed healthcare reform to placing sanctions on North Korea to the Amazon/Whole Foods deal, there was no shortage of market-moving news in the last several months. Before we unofficially say goodbye to summer next week, we checked in with CIO Mark Heppenstall for his take on what’s been happening in the news cycle and its impact on markets as well as what investors can expect leading into the final quarter of 2017.
By David O'Malley | August 21, 2017
Beginning on Thursday, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The annual meeting draws central bankers from around the world, including Janet Yellen from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and Mario Draghi from the European Central Bank (ECB).
By Jen Ripper | August 3, 2017
Summer conjures up warm memories of family vacations, lazy days, endless ice cream, amusement rides, walks on the beach, barbeques, and of course, occasional heat waves. Bananarama’s summertime hit “Cruel Summer,” which touches on oppressive heat, climbed the Billboard charts in 1984. Appropriately, the music video was shot during a heat wave.
For some investors, it may seem like a cruel summer with limited opportunities to generate alpha. It certainly feels like most major markets are heating up as risk premiums continue to grind tighter, leaving investors commiserating.
By David O'Malley | July 24, 2017
Last week, markets traded mainly range bound as economic data and corporate earnings met expectations. In the week ahead, market participants will be closely watching for any clues from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the meeting could provide important information on future policy.
By David O'Malley | July 10, 2017
Bond yields have been rising around the globe for the last few weeks as central bankers discuss the continued normalization of monetary policy. The unprecedented monetary policy used since the financial crisis in 2008 is slowly being removed. Despite the reduction in stimulus, monetary policy is still accommodative. I expect the trend of rising rates will continue over the next few months as the supply and demand equation for debt is being reevaluated amid less support from central banks.
By David O'Malley | June 19, 2017
In a much anticipated move last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) increased short-term interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). The Fed also outlined parameters for shrinking its $4.5 trillion balance sheet. Once the process begins, it is expected to take at least four years to reduce the balance sheet by approximately $2-2.5 trillion.
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