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And the Next Fed Chair is?

By David O'Malley | October 23, 2017

Stocks rallied and bond yields rose last week on optimism for the Republicans to successfully pass tax reform and on strength in third quarter corporate earnings. These two factors will probably continue to move markets in the coming week.

Inflation Data Disappoints

By David O'Malley | October 16, 2017

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5% for the month of September but was lower than expected. Despite a tight labor market, strong economic conditions and increasing commodity prices, inflation has remained lower than expected throughout 2017. Further, CPI has been lower than its expectations in six of the last seven months.

Jackson Hole Conference will be Closely Watched

By David O'Malley | August 21, 2017

Beginning on Thursday, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The annual meeting draws central bankers from around the world, including Janet Yellen from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and Mario Draghi from the European Central Bank (ECB).

Misery Index on Track for New Lows

By Mark Heppenstall | July 13, 2017

The Misery Index, developed in the 1960s by Yale University economist Arthur Okun, has been a widely followed measure of national economic performance. The Index is calculated by simply adding together the trailing 12-month inflation rate and current unemployment rate. This week’s chart shows a 70-year history of the Misery Index in the U.S.

Bond Yields Rise Around the Globe

By David O'Malley | July 10, 2017

Bond yields have been rising around the globe for the last few weeks as central bankers discuss the continued normalization of monetary policy. The unprecedented monetary policy used since the financial crisis in 2008 is slowly being removed. Despite the reduction in stimulus, monetary policy is still accommodative. I expect the trend of rising rates will continue over the next few months as the supply and demand equation for debt is being reevaluated amid less support from central banks.

February Employment Data will be Key in the Week Ahead

By David O'Malley | March 6, 2017

Last week saw the equity market hit new highs as economic optimism abounded after President Trump addressed a joint session of Congress. Continued expectations for significant fiscal stimulus and corporate-friendly tax policy have kept stocks well-bid since the election. With the S&P 500 Index up over 11% since the election and more than 6% since year-end, stocks have seen tremendous gains with very little pullback since November. It is now essential the administration and Congress deliver in market expectations.

Market Activity to Slow This Week

By David O'Malley | December 19, 2016

Market activity is expected to slow during the final trading days of 2016.

The Fed’s Dilemma

By David O'Malley | September 19, 2016

On Wednesday around 2:00 p.m. ET, we will find out the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision to either keep interest rates unchanged or increase them by 25 basis points. Most market… Read More

Jackson Hole Speech Headlines a Quiet Week Ahead

By David O'Malley | August 22, 2016

I expect the week ahead to be calm, with all eyes on Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday, August 26, at the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s Jackson Hole Wyoming symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed.

Weak Employment Number Makes a June Fed Rate Increase Unlikely

By David O'Malley | June 6, 2016

The May employment number caught market participants off guard last week, and the odds for a June rate hike look very slim.



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This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Dave O’Malley, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client.  Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.

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Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice.  The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete.  Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements.  Actual results may differ significantly.  Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

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