Fed tightening

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Solid Employment Report Opens the Door to Fed Tightening

By David O'Malley | December 5, 2016

Last week’s November employment report was solid and clears the path for a Federal Reserve (Fed) increase in interest rates at this month’s meeting. There were 178,000 jobs added in November versus an expectation of 180,000. Revisions to prior reports were a modest 2,000 jobs and the unemployment rate has dropped by 0.3% to 4.6%.

FOMC Expected to Keep Rates Unchanged

By David O'Malley | July 25, 2016

This week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will provide insight into the policy committee’s thinking about the post-Brexit economy.

U.S. Economic Data Supports the Market

By David O'Malley | July 18, 2016

Despite all of the political, geo-political and social tumult in the news recently, U.S. economic data has remained surprisingly robust. Stronger economic data has been one of the components in the recent rally in U.S. equities.

Weak Employment Number Makes a June Fed Rate Increase Unlikely

By David O'Malley | June 6, 2016

The May employment number caught market participants off guard last week, and the odds for a June rate hike look very slim.

June, July or Wait. The Anticipation Builds for the Fed

By David O'Malley | May 31, 2016

Janet Yellen kept trading desks fully staffed on Friday, before the holiday weekend. Yellen had stated in a speech that the economy continues to improve and that a rate increase might be warranted.

Waiting for Janet Yellen

By David O'Malley | May 23, 2016

The Federal Reserve (Fed) minutes from the April meeting, released last week, surprised the market with the Fed’s insinuation that a June increase in interest rates may be warranted. The Fed’s more hawkish tone has made two upcoming speeches from Fed President Janet Yellen very important.

U.S. Economy Outperforming Expectations

By David O'Malley | March 7, 2016

The U.S. economic data last week was stronger than expected, and the risk markets continued to perform well. Overall, I thought the data last week was strong and supports 2.5% to 3.0% Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Stock Valuations and the Fed

By David O'Malley | January 18, 2016

Last week, I was asked to comment on an article in the Wall Street Journal that suggested investors have been accepting higher levels of risk in their investments in a quest for higher returns. The article held that this means many assets are overpriced, and the Fed’s actions in raising interest rates will cause those prices to fall.

FOMC the Hawks Awaken

By David O'Malley | December 21, 2015

The hawks on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) awakened last week from their decade-long slumber.

Risk Markets Weaken in Advance of the Fed Meeting This Week

By David O'Malley | December 14, 2015

Continued weakness in commodities prices, especially oil, continues to weigh on the equity and credit markets in advance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting this week.

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This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Dave O’Malley, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

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