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Geopolitical Risks, Market Forecasts and a Tax Reform Clause

By Mark Heppenstall | August 30, 2017

While trading slowed during the summer months, as it historically does, the headlines did not! From squashed healthcare reform to placing sanctions on North Korea to the Amazon/Whole Foods deal, there was no shortage of market-moving news in the last several months. Before we unofficially say goodbye to summer next week, we checked in with CIO Mark Heppenstall for his take on what’s been happening in the news cycle and its impact on markets as well as what investors can expect leading into the final quarter of 2017.

Earnings Heat Up This Week

By David O'Malley | July 17, 2017

Second quarter earnings will receive significant attention this week, as stocks pushed to new highs on the S&P 500 Index last week. Expectations for solid earnings reports have been growing over the past few weeks and are necessary to keep stocks grinding higher.

Stocks Rally on French Election

By David O'Malley | April 24, 2017

The results of the first round of French elections sent stocks around the world higher in early trading on Sunday. Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen will advance to the… Read More

The Value Trap

By David O'Malley | February 21, 2017

In this short trading week, I will be watching to see if we get any more information on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) current thinking when they release the January meeting minutes this Wednesday. If U.S. economic data remains strong, I expect the Fed to increase interest rates by 25 basis points at the March meeting. Also of interest this week is the expected release of Berkshire Hathaway’s earnings and Warren Buffett’s annual letter on Saturday, which to me is a must read.

What is the Consensus Market View?

By David O'Malley | February 6, 2017

Last week was fairly uneventful from a market data perspective, as all eyes continued to be glued on Washington and the almost constant coverage of the Trump administration. On the economic data side, the unemployment report confirmed the continued creation of new jobs. Stocks and bonds gained on the jobs report, as job growth without inflation helped support asset valuations.

Economic Data Will Drive the Markets in the Week Ahead

By David O'Malley | January 23, 2017

The inauguration stole the headlines last week, and I expect it will be no different in the week ahead. With the anticipated repeal of The Affordable Care Act, cabinet appointments and the planned meetings with world leaders, including U.K., Canada and Mexico, the activities in Washington will continue to keep the media’s attention. Amid this, I believe market participants will start to turn their attention back to the economy and earnings, both of which will be prominent in the week ahead.

Insights on the Market and Economy

By David O'Malley | April 11, 2016

While I enjoy reading Warren Buffet’s report each year, since the financial crisis I believe that JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon’s letter is absolutely essential reading.

The Fed Decides to Wait. What Now?

By David O'Malley | September 21, 2015

The Fed’s decision to not increase rates should have been positive for both stocks and bonds; however, the risk markets are trying to determine the implications of global uncertainty on equity valuations.

Low Liquidity, 2Q Earnings and Market Breadth

By David O'Malley | July 27, 2015

One of the risks for the stocks of individual companies in this environment is that stock prices can move very significantly on good and bad news.

Low Volatility, Low Volume Markets

By David O'Malley | May 25, 2015

One of the interesting characteristics of the recent market is its low volatility in the equity market, which contrasts with high price volatility in the fixed income market.



Disclosure Statement

This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Dave O’Malley, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client.  Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.

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Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice.  The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete.  Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements.  Actual results may differ significantly.  Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.

High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.

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