10-Year Treasury

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Unexpectedly Weak Employment Report

By David O'Malley | September 5, 2017

The nuclear test by North Korea has brought geopolitical uncertainty to a new level. As I have previously written, it is very hard to trade geopolitical risk so I prefer to stay focused on fundamentals.

Last week’s August employment report was weaker than expectations on almost all aspects. The report comes after stronger employment data earlier in the week. The ramifications of the weaker report bring the odds of a December interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to less than 50/50. The weaker average hourly earnings and sluggish inflation data may keep the Fed on hold until after the holiday spending season.

Geopolitical Risks Upset Markets

By David O'Malley | April 17, 2017

Geopolitical issues took center stage last week as stocks fell again and Treasury bond yields dropped to their lowest level in 2017, as tensions surrounding North Korea and with Russia over the U.S. attack in Syria had market participants worried about the impact of the Trump administration’s domestic agenda.

Markets and Uncertainty Are a Bad Combination

By David O'Malley | June 13, 2016

U.S. stocks traded off recent highs and bond yields fell again last week. After the disappointing employment report, 10-year Treasury yields have now fallen by 70 basis points this year.

Market Prices or Economic Fundamentals?

By David O'Malley | January 25, 2016

After another volatile week for the financial markets, equities and energy prices ended up after starting the week by marking new lows for the year. I got to thinking about the possibility that this market selloff could create a slowdown in economic activity.

2016 Off to a Shaky Start

By David O'Malley | January 11, 2016

The first few trading days of 2016 have seen U.S. equities put in their worst performance to start a year ever and their worst week since 2011.

2015 Lessons Learned: 3 Takeaways for Investors

By Mark Heppenstall | January 4, 2016

Here are a few key lessons investors learned (again) during 2015. Today also marks a key milestone for our company and our investment team as we enter the private market with the launch of a private fund. The fund marks our entrance into the private market and is an outgrowth of our firm’s depth and expertise as fixed income managers.

The Fed Decides to Wait. What Now?

By David O'Malley | September 21, 2015

The Fed’s decision to not increase rates should have been positive for both stocks and bonds; however, the risk markets are trying to determine the implications of global uncertainty on equity valuations.

So What Happens Next in the Market and the Economy?

By David O'Malley | August 31, 2015

As expected, last week we saw tremendous volatility in the markets. The Dow was down over 1,000 points at market open on Monday and had recovered significantly during the remainder of the week.

Watch Emerging Market Currencies for Indications of an Improving Market

By David O'Malley | August 24, 2015

Global equity markets suffered the largest losses in over a year as concerns increase about the strength of the Chinese economy and the implications for emerging market economies around the globe.

Yuan Devaluation Surprises Market

By David O'Malley | August 17, 2015

Last week’s surprise announcement from the Chinese government devaluing the Yuan affected markets across the globe.



Disclosure Statement

This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Dave O’Malley, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client.  Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.

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Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice.  The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete.  Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements.  Actual results may differ significantly.  Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.

High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.

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