The Long View

Monday Morning O’Malley

A weekly take on the economy and the market, from Dave O’Malley, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of Penn Mutual Asset Management.

Latest Stories

Stocks Make a New High

By David O'Malley | September 18, 2017

The S&P 500 closed above the 2,500 mark for the first time on Friday. The markets ended a strong week of gains driven by continued favorable conditions for economic growth and the prospects for potentially bipartisan action coming out of Washington.

Hurricane Recovery and Economic Impact

By David O'Malley | September 11, 2017

The one-two punch of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma has impacted so many in Texas, Florida and throughout the Southern part of the U.S. We keep all of those impacted in our thoughts and wish them a speedy recovery.
Markets will be looking at how these two storms will impact the economy both in the near term and farther down the line. In the short term, the potential is for the storms to put downward pressure on economic performance and distort statistics (like the rise in unemployment claims last week), but the rebuilding process will be a boost to the economy.

Unexpectedly Weak Employment Report

By David O'Malley | September 5, 2017

The nuclear test by North Korea has brought geopolitical uncertainty to a new level. As I have previously written, it is very hard to trade geopolitical risk so I prefer to stay focused on fundamentals.

Last week’s August employment report was weaker than expectations on almost all aspects. The report comes after stronger employment data earlier in the week. The ramifications of the weaker report bring the odds of a December interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to less than 50/50. The weaker average hourly earnings and sluggish inflation data may keep the Fed on hold until after the holiday spending season.

Uneventful Jackson Hole Meeting Leaves Markets Waiting on Economic Data

By David O'Malley | August 28, 2017

I first want to send my thoughts and well wishes to everyone enduring the impact of Hurricane Harvey in Texas.

Last week’s Jackson Hole Meeting was very uneventful from a market perspective as central banks kept their remarks very much in line with recent commentary. Janet Yellen’s speech felt more like a farewell address than laying out future Federal Reserve (Fed) policy.

Jackson Hole Conference will be Closely Watched

By David O'Malley | August 21, 2017

Beginning on Thursday, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank hosts its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The annual meeting draws central bankers from around the world, including Janet Yellen from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and Mario Draghi from the European Central Bank (ECB).

Geopolitical Risks Muddy the Economic Picture

By David O'Malley | August 14, 2017

Geopolitical risks dominated headlines last week with the increasing escalation over North Korea’s nuclear weapons program stealing most of the spotlight. The war of words that has been simmering between the U.S. and North Korea bubbled over into markets. After making new highs, the S&P 500 fell 2% late in the week, marking the first significant sell off in several months.

Treasury Auctions and Inflation Data

By David O'Malley | August 7, 2017

Last week’s employment data confirmed the strength of the jobs market with 209,000 new jobs added during July versus an expected 180,000. The unemployment rate fell to a cyclical low of 4.3% while hourly earnings increased by 0.3% to a 2.5% year-over-year rate.

Will Falling Unemployment Finally Lead to a Pickup in Wages?

By David O'Malley | July 31, 2017

Last week saw strong corporate earnings and continued growth in the U.S. economy. U.S. GDP for the second quarter was 2.6% according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advanced estimate. The strength in the economy was driven by robust business investments for the quarter. Further, the failure of the Republican plan to repeal and/or replace the Affordable Care Act drove headlines last week.

Investors Watching for Clues in the Federal Reserve Meeting and Second Quarter GDP This Week

By David O'Malley | July 24, 2017

Last week, markets traded mainly range bound as economic data and corporate earnings met expectations. In the week ahead, market participants will be closely watching for any clues from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the meeting could provide important information on future policy.

Earnings Heat Up This Week

By David O'Malley | July 17, 2017

Second quarter earnings will receive significant attention this week, as stocks pushed to new highs on the S&P 500 Index last week. Expectations for solid earnings reports have been growing over the past few weeks and are necessary to keep stocks grinding higher.



Disclosure Statement

This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Dave O’Malley, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client.  Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.

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Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice.  The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete.  Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements.  Actual results may differ significantly.  Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

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