The Long View

Monday Morning O’Malley

A weekly take on the economy and the market, from Dave O’Malley, Chairman & Chief Executive Officer of Penn Mutual Asset Management.

Latest Stories

Inflation Data this Week to Remain Subdued 

By David O'Malley | November 13, 2017

Tuesday’s release of the Producers Price Index (PPI) and Wednesday’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be the economic data highlights this week. With inflation remaining stubbornly low despite strong employment conditions and the odds of a December interest rate increase running around 80%, the importance of the pace of inflation data takes on greater significance.

Oil Prices Continue to Climb Higher

By David O'Malley | November 6, 2017

Last week Jerome Powell was nominated as the next Federal Reserve chairman. In addition to this key announcement other market-moving data, including the employment report, tax bill and treasury refunding,… Read More

Critical Week for Bonds

By David O'Malley | October 30, 2017

This week is a critical week for the bond market as 10-year Treasuries yields are trading above the 2.4% level that has been cited by Bill Gross of Janus as signaling a bear market. This sentiment was reinforced by Jeffrey Gundlach of DoubleLine’s comments when he called this “the moment of truth” for bonds. During the week, several key factors could significantly impact the near term movement of yields.

And the Next Fed Chair is?

By David O'Malley | October 23, 2017

Stocks rallied and bond yields rose last week on optimism for the Republicans to successfully pass tax reform and on strength in third quarter corporate earnings. These two factors will probably continue to move markets in the coming week.

Inflation Data Disappoints

By David O'Malley | October 16, 2017

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.5% for the month of September but was lower than expected. Despite a tight labor market, strong economic conditions and increasing commodity prices, inflation has remained lower than expected throughout 2017. Further, CPI has been lower than its expectations in six of the last seven months.

Underlying Employment Strength

By David O'Malley | October 9, 2017

Last week’s September employment report showed weakness in the headline jobs gained number but significant underlying strength in other measures. The economy lost 33,000 jobs for the month versus an… Read More

What Will the Fourth Quarter Hold for the Markets?

By David O'Malley | October 2, 2017

Before beginning, we would first like to extend our heartfelt thoughts and sympathies to all of those affected by the recent tragedy in Las Vegas. Equity markets ended the third quarter on a positive note as optimism about the economy and fiscal stimulus in the form of tax cuts kept stocks well bid. The fourth quarter gets off to a quick start this week with some key U.S. economic data.

Fed Continues Hawkish Tone

By David O'Malley | September 25, 2017

The stock market held near record levels and interest rates were stable after the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced its much anticipated plan to shrink its balance sheet last week. Despite concerns about the impact of Fed interest rate increases on the long term economy and inflation outlook, the Fed took a constructive view of the dynamics impacting the economy. As a result of the relatively hawkish tone, the odds of a December rate hike increased. I still believe the Fed will hold off on increasing rates until 2018.

Stocks Make a New High

By David O'Malley | September 18, 2017

The S&P 500 closed above the 2,500 mark for the first time on Friday. The markets ended a strong week of gains driven by continued favorable conditions for economic growth and the prospects for potentially bipartisan action coming out of Washington.

Hurricane Recovery and Economic Impact

By David O'Malley | September 11, 2017

The one-two punch of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma has impacted so many in Texas, Florida and throughout the Southern part of the U.S. We keep all of those impacted in our thoughts and wish them a speedy recovery.
Markets will be looking at how these two storms will impact the economy both in the near term and farther down the line. In the short term, the potential is for the storms to put downward pressure on economic performance and distort statistics (like the rise in unemployment claims last week), but the rebuilding process will be a boost to the economy.



Disclosure Statement

This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Dave O’Malley, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client.  Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.

Read More...

Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice.  The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete.  Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements.  Actual results may differ significantly.  Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.

High-Yield bonds are subject to greater fluctuations in value and risk of loss of income and principal. Investing in higher yielding, lower rated corporate bonds have a greater risk of price fluctuations and loss of principal and income than U.S. Treasury bonds and bills. Government securities offer a higher degree of safety and are guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest if held to maturity.

All trademarks are the property of their respective owners. This material may not be reproduced in whole or in part in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission.

Copyright © 2015 Penn Mutual. All Rights Reserved. All trademarks are the property of their respective owners.

Read Less...