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Does the August Employment Report Determine Fed Rate Increase in September?

By David O'Malley | August 29, 2016

Last week’s Jackson Hole meeting reinforced the consensus view within the Federal Reserve (Fed) that the U.S. economy is continuing to improve and that the Fed expects to achieve its dual mandate of full employment and stable inflation in the coming quarters.

Leveraged Loans Becoming Top of Mind

By Greg Zappin | August 25, 2016

Fixed income total and excess returns continue to impress, and 2016 is on pace to collectively be one of the stronger years for spread product in the post-crisis period. An asset class that has performed well, but has lagged on a relative basis, is leveraged loans.

Jackson Hole Speech Headlines a Quiet Week Ahead

By David O'Malley | August 22, 2016

I expect the week ahead to be calm, with all eyes on Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday, August 26, at the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s Jackson Hole Wyoming symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed.

Is the Success of Monetary Policy Good for Investors?

By Zhiwei Ren | August 18, 2016

If the original goal of monetary easing was to stimulate growth and inflation, we can say it has failed. The question is: Do investors want the central banks to succeed eventually?

3-month LIBOR Increases

By David O'Malley | August 15, 2016

Since June 24, the U.S. 3-month LIBOR has increased from 0.62% to 0.82%. The last time LIBOR increased this much was right before the Federal Reserve (Fed) increased interest rates in November/December of last year. So, is the Fed going to increase rates in September, or is something else going on?

TED Spread Widening: Still the Canary in a Coal Mine?

By Mark Heppenstall | August 11, 2016

Historically, a widening of the TED spread has provided an early warning indicator for periods of stress in the financial system and weak equity market performance. The TED spread recently reached 55 basis points, the widest level in five years and double the level from just six months ago.

U.S. Employment Trends Remain Favorable

By David O'Malley | August 8, 2016

The July payroll report on U.S. employment backed up the strong June report with another favorable sign for hiring. July non-farm payrolls rose by 255,000, with a net 18,000 positive… Read More

Could the M&A Cycle Be Entering Extra Innings?

By Justin Kaplan | August 4, 2016

Midway through 2016, deal multiples in private equity and merger and acquisition (M&A) transactions in the U.S. have climbed almost a full turn higher than the levels seen in 2015, sitting at 11.3x (EV/EBITDA*).

Structural Reform, Not More Monetary Policy, Needed for Stronger Nominal Growth

By David O'Malley | August 1, 2016

Last week the Federal Reserve (Fed) decided to keep short-term interest rates unchanged. The decision was widely expected by market participants, and many now expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged well into 2017.

Disclosure Statement

This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Dave O’Malley, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client.  Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.


Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice.  The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete.  Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements.  Actual results may differ significantly.  Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  All information referenced in preparation of this material has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. There is no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information and Penn Mutual Asset Management shall have no liability for decisions based upon such information.

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