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U.S. Growth Revised Higher but Market Volatility Expected to Continue

By David O'Malley | February 29, 2016

Last week, fourth quarter GDP was revised higher from an initial 0.7% to 1.0%. I expect first quarter GDP to accelerate to 2.5%. Volatility should pick up this week, with some key economic data being released and more focus on China and a potential “Brexit.”

Are Taxable Munis a Safe Haven?

By James Faunce | February 25, 2016

Other than U.S. Treasuries, the most stable credit market has been the less-followed taxable municipal bond market, a trend I expect to continue despite what appear to be full valuations.

Is Inflation Good for Equities?

By David O'Malley | February 22, 2016

Inflation data still remains low and energy is holding down the headline CPI numbers, but, given the recent uptick in average hourly earnings, it is worth watching any trend for inflation closely. Is rising inflation good for equities?

Are Negative Interest Rates Losing Their Economic Impact?

By John Swarr | February 18, 2016

This week’s chart intends to capture the divergence between theory and reality in recent central bank actions to lower deposit rates into negative territory. Theory held up in practice in 2014, but recent moves to lower policy rates have not produced the same effects.

Was Friday’s Relief Rally Sustainable?

By David O'Malley | February 16, 2016

Last week was another difficult week for stocks despite Friday’s sharp rally. Will Friday’s rally continue?

Global Trade Outlook: A Tale of Two Vessels

By Jason Merrill | February 11, 2016

Weakening coal demand from China remains a drag on global trade. However, crude oil tankers have stayed quite busy and full.

Is Something Fundamentally Wrong Beneath the Surface of the Markets?

By David O'Malley | February 8, 2016

The tone of the market last week was very concerning to me. The momentum darlings of 2015 are now starting to lead the declines in 2016. Even more concerning than the current equity volatility is what is happening in the fixed income credit markets.

When I Was a Kid…

By Trevor M. Williams | February 4, 2016

For teenagers, mobile devices are social lifelines. Without one, they would have to resort to speaking to one another, severely limiting their ability to thrive socially. Apparently talking is old school.

Capital & Bond Market Outlook 2016

By Mark Heppenstall | February 3, 2016

Wider spreads for corporate and structured securities during 2015 improved valuations and turned our outlook more positive for credit risk despite global economic headwinds.

Russia and the Bank of Japan Surprise Equity and Oil Markets

By David O'Malley | February 1, 2016

The past week saw two surprise announcements that caused stocks and oil to rally for the week. Russia made the first overture to other oil producing nations to curtail production. The Bank of Japan also reduced interest rates to negative 0.10%.



Disclosure Statement

This blog post is for informational use only. The views expressed are those of the author, Dave O’Malley, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Penn Mutual Asset Management. This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.

Any statements about financial and company performance of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company or its insurance subsidiaries (each, “Client”) made by the author is provided with a written consent from the Client.  Penn Mutual Asset Management is a wholly owned subsidiary of The Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company.

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Opinions and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute judgment of the author and are subject to change without notice.  The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from sources deemed to be reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete.  Statements that reflect projections or expectations of future financial or economic performance of the markets may be considered forward-looking statements.  Actual results may differ significantly.  Any forecasts contained in this material are based on various estimates and assumptions, and there can be no assurance that such estimates or assumptions will prove accurate.

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